Subkhon Rakhimov, a survivor of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, shares a fresh video documenting damage to the aircraft, including possible shrapnel and bird strike marks.
In a tragic turn of events on December 25, 2024, a plane crash near Kazakhstan’s Aktau airport left 38 people dead and 29 others injured. Among the survivors was Subkhon Rakhimov, a passenger who miraculously survived the crash. In the aftermath, Rakhimov shared an eye-opening video that documented the severe damage to the aircraft, shedding light on the suspected causes and theories circulating about the crash.
Rakhimov’s footage, shared widely on social media, shows the extensive damage to the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which was on a scheduled flight from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Russia. The crash occurred after the plane was diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, under mysterious circumstances, and ultimately crashed while attempting to land in dense fog, as the authorities would later report.
The Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash: What We Know So Far
The Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which departed Baku on December 25, was heading towards Grozny when it unexpectedly changed course and was diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan. This diversion is believed to have been influenced by dense fog in the region, making visibility poor for pilots attempting to land.
Reports indicate that the aircraft encountered significant issues during its final approach to Aktau. According to preliminary information, the plane was attempting to land in low visibility conditions, and the crash occurred when it failed to safely touch down.
Subkhon Rakhimov, one of the survivors, managed to document the aftermath of the crash, showing the damage to the plane’s body, including several small holes along the wings and tail section. This evidence has sparked intense speculation about the possible causes of the crash.

Subkhon Rakhimov’s Video Reveals Evidence of Aircraft Damage
Rakhimov, who was traveling with his wife on the flight, shared a chilling video from the wreckage, documenting the damage sustained by the Embraer 190 aircraft. The video shows visible holes in various sections of the plane’s wings and tail.
In particular, Rakhimov highlights the small punctures and shrapnel-like damage that appear to be scattered along the tail and wings. The footage adds fuel to the ongoing investigation, with some experts speculating that these could be the result of a bird strike, as indicated by Russian aviation authorities. Others have suggested that the holes might be linked to possible firing from a Russian air defense system aimed at intercepting a Ukrainian drone.
The incident occurred shortly after the plane had been diverted, and the holes in the aircraft may offer clues about the events that led to the crash. Rakhimov also shared a video just before the crash, in which passengers could be heard praying amidst the loud noise of the engines, adding to the gravity of the situation.
Was the Crash Caused by a Bird Strike or a Russian Defense System?
While initial reports indicated that a bird strike might have caused the aircraft to divert to Aktau, aviation experts are now considering other possible explanations. The plane’s damage, specifically the small holes observed in the tail and wings, has led some analysts to propose that these could have been caused by shrapnel from a Russian air defense system. This theory stems from recent reports of increased military activity in the region, with Russia’s air defense system reportedly firing at Ukrainian drones.
However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has urged caution, emphasizing that it would be premature to jump to conclusions about the cause of the crash. Peskov said, “It would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Similarly, Maulen Ashimbayev, Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, echoed this sentiment, telling the Associated Press that it was unethical to make conclusions based solely on photos of the wreckage. These statements reflect the caution that authorities are exercising as they work to determine the true cause of the crash.
The Role of Weather Conditions in the Crash
While the plane’s damage and the speculation about potential bird strikes or military action are at the forefront, it’s also essential to consider the weather conditions that led to the aircraft’s diversion to Aktau. The dense fog in the region was a critical factor that forced the aircraft to alter its course, according to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. During a press conference, President Aliyev confirmed that the low visibility due to fog was one of the reasons the plane did not follow its intended path.
It is still unclear whether the poor weather alone was responsible for the crash, or if the damage to the aircraft, as documented in Rakhimov’s video, played a role. The investigation is ongoing, with aviation authorities working to piece together the various factors that led to the tragedy.
Aviation Expert Opinions and Theories
Aviation experts have weighed in on the significance of the holes in the aircraft’s wings and tail section. Some experts suggest that the damage could point to the possibility of the plane having been struck by debris from a military defense system, possibly from a Russian air defense unit. This speculation is linked to the increased military activity in the area, which has been the subject of international attention due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
On the other hand, some experts have noted that the damage could also be consistent with the aftermath of a bird strike, which is a common cause of accidents in aviation. Bird strikes can cause significant damage to an aircraft, especially during takeoff or landing, and could have led to the aircraft being forced to divert to Aktau in an attempt to avoid further complications.
As the investigation continues, aviation professionals are urging caution and reminding the public that conclusions based on visual evidence alone are speculative at best.
A Survivor’s Story: The Impact on Passengers
Subkhon Rakhimov’s first-person account of the crash is both harrowing and poignant. His earlier video, which he filmed moments before the crash, captures the panic and fear of passengers as the aircraft faced its final descent. The video shows Rakhimov’s wife beside him, and both can be heard praying as the aircraft shudders and the engine noise intensifies. This glimpse into the final moments before the crash adds a personal, human element to the tragedy.
Rakhimov’s survival, along with that of 28 other passengers, is nothing short of miraculous, especially given the severity of the crash. In total, 38 people lost their lives in the crash, and those who survived have been left with both physical and emotional scars from the harrowing incident.
The Ongoing Investigation and International Interest
As the investigation into the crash progresses, there is growing international interest in understanding the full circumstances surrounding the tragedy. Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have launched official inquiries into the incident, and international aviation authorities, including the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), are expected to provide support as the investigation unfolds.
The Azerbaijan Airlines and Embraer are also conducting internal reviews of the aircraft and its maintenance records to identify any possible technical faults that could have contributed to the crash.